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Prediction for CME (2014-02-04T01:25:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2014-02-04T01:25Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/4592/-1
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2014-02-07T16:16Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0
Dst min. in nT: -37
Dst min. time: 2014-02-09T07:00Z

Predicted Arrival Time: 2014-02-07T18:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
:Issued: 2014 Feb 04 1311 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
A weak partial halo CME first appeared in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view today at 01:25 UT (after a data gap). It had the angular width of around 170 degrees and the plane-of-the-sky projected speed of around 700 km/s. The CME was most probably associated with an eruption in the western part of the Catania sunspot group 28 (NOAA AR 1967) accompanied with a weak and small coronal dimming and a post-eruption arcade. No flare was reported as the eruption seemed associated with one of the slow increases of the solar soft X-ray flux, with the above-mentioned (unrelated) M3.8 flare superposed on top of it. Due to the weakness of the partial halo and based on its morphology, we expect only the arrival of a CME-driven shock at the Earth, probably late on February 7, with weak geomagnetic consequences up to the active level (K = 4). 
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Lead Time: 75.08 hour(s)
Difference: -1.73 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2014-02-04T13:11Z
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